The Energy Information Administration reports that production of crude oil within the United States has risen during the last few years, increasing from 5.1 million barrels per day in 2007 to 5.5 million barrels per day in 2010.  This increases reverses a decline that began in 1986. 

Further, the EIA projects that domestic production will continue to increase through approximately 2020, reaching a peak of approximately 6.7 million barrels per day that year.  After that, production will begin to decline, but will still be 6.1 million barrels per day in 2035, about 10% above production rates in 2010.

The EIA states that the future increases will be driven by continued development of tight oil, as well as ongoing development of offshore resources in the Gulf of Mexico.  "Tight oil" is crude oil produced from low permeability formations, such as shale formations, typically through the use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. 

The Bakken formation in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford formation in South Texas are examples of shale formations from which tight oil currently is being produced.  Exploration has begun in other formations that also are expected to yield significant amounts of tight oil, including the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale in Central Louisiana and the Brown Dense in North Louisiana and South Arkansas.

The graph below shows the EIA projections for the rate of crude oil production from 1990 through 2035, and breaks down the rate of production by the source of the oil. 

As the graph shows, increased production from the Gulf of Mexico plays a part in the increased production, but the EIA states that, "The higher level of production results mainly from increased onshore oil production, predominantly tight oil."  The EIA projects that tight oil will account for 31% of onshore production from the lower 48 states in 2035, compared to 12% in 2010. 

The increased production of crude oil is contributing to decreased imports of oil.  Imported liquid fuels accounted for 60% of U.S. consumption in 2006, but had declined to 50% by 2010.  The EPA projects that the share of consumption supplied by imports will continue to decline, and will be down to about 36% by 2035.  The following graph shows total U.S. consumption of petroleum, as well as the portion of consumption supplied by domestic production and the portion supplied by imports.  

Increased production of biofuels also is projected to play a part in lessening U.S. reliance on imports.  Biofuel use is projected to increase to more than 1 million barrels per day of crude oil equivalent by 2024. 

The EIA projects that the rate of growth in consumption will be slow.  The EPA predicts that transportation energy demand, which accounts for a large portion of crude oil consumption, will increase by only 0.2% per year from 2010 through 2035.

The EIA's projections are contained in an "Early Release Overview" of its 2012 Annual Energy Outlook.